Организация здравоохранения
LONG-TERM TRENDS AND FORECAST OF STAFFING OF MEDICAL ORGANIZATIONS PROVIDING MEDICAL CARE TO THE POPULATION WITH DISEASES OF THE CIRCULATORY SYSTEM
Z.V. Lopatin1, I.M. Son1,2, O.V. Medvedeva1,3, D.V. Vikhrev2, D.A. Sychev1,4
1. The Russian Medical Academy of Continuing Professional Education of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
2. The Penza Institute of Advanced Training of Doctors, a branch of the Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Additional Professional Education «Russian Medical Academy of Continuing Professional Education» of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Penza, Russia
3. Scientific Medicine Clinic LLC, Moscow, Russia
4. The Center for Predictive Genetics, Pharmacogenetics, and Personalized Therapy of the Russian State Budgetary Scientific Institution «Russian Scientific Center of Surgery named after Academician B.V. Petrovsky», Moscow, Russia
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Summary:
Introduction. The problem of diseases of the circulatory system, which have a significant impact on public health, is one of the highest priorities that are being addressed both internationally and nationally levels. In the context of global health, this problem requires an integrated approach not only to prevention, diagnosis and treatment, but also interdisciplinary cooperation between specialists in various areas of medicine. The essence of the subject of this publication is that in conditions where the healthcare system is a key element of ensuring public well-being and public health, the issue of providing medical personnel is of particular importance.
Purpose of the investigation. To analyze the dynamics of staffing of medical organizations providing medical care for diseases of the circulatory system to the population of the Russian Federation, the Volga Federal District and the Penza Region in the period from 2015 to 2024, identify the main trends in indicators and evaluate the parameters of the trend model.
Materials and methods. The retrospective study was conducted from 2015 to 2024. In order to identify the main trend, the graphical method and the analytical smoothing method are applied. The direction of the trend was determined by the growth coefficient; the assessment of the intensity of changes in indicators included the calculation of the growth rate and the average annual growth rate. To eliminate random fluctuations and identify the main trend in the development of the phenomenon under study, the analytical smoothing method was applied. To determine the accuracy of fitting the trend equation to the initial data, the relative approximation error and the approximation coefficient were calculated. The stability of the trend was assessed by the coefficient of nonlinear correlation. The statistical significance of the trend parameters was verified using the Fisher criterion, and the method of trend deviations was used to test the first-order autocorrelation of the elements of the sequence under study. The method of trend extrapolation was used to calculate the interval forecast of the availability rate of the population of the Penza region with cardiologists, neurologists, therapists and district therapists (t 2029; p-level 95%). The accuracy of the predictive models was assessed using the quadratic mean error (MSE), total variance (σ2), and the Tail discrepancy coefficient (СТ).
Results and discussion. In all regions of the Russian Federation, an increase in the absolute number of cardiologists, rheumatologists, and cardiovascular surgeons was found (GC in the range from 1,05 to 1,54) and a decrease in the number of neurologists (GC=0,91; 0,88; 0,93, respectively, in the Russian Federation, the Volga Federal District, and the Penza Region). The difference in the dynamics of the trend in the number of cardiovascular surgeons in Penza region is expressed in its unsustainable (η=0,4) and low intensity (GR =7,41%). The number of neurologists is decreasing in all subjects of the Russian Federation (GC=0,91; 0,88; 0,93, respectively, for the Russian Federation, the Volga Federal District and the Penza Region) with an unstable trend in the Penza region (η=0,47; R2=0,495). The trend of availability of cardiologists is steady in all regions, but the figures in the Penza region are growing 37,43% faster than in the Russian Federation and 27,44% faster than in the Volga Federal District. In the Penza region, there is a pronounced steady trend towards an increase in the provision of rheumatologists to the population (GC =1.5; 1,5; η=0,91; R2=0,826) with a very high intensity of the dynamic process (GR +50,0%), unlike the other two regions.
Conclusion. An increase in the absolute number of cardiologists, rheumatologists, and cardiovascular surgeons was found, and a decrease in the number of neurologists in the Russian Federation, the Volga Federal District, and the Penza Region was found with differences in the intensity of dynamic processes and the stability of trend models. An increase in the availability of cardiologists, rheumatologists, and cardiovascular surgeons to the population was revealed in all the subjects compared, and a decrease in the provision of neurologists for the Russian Federation and the Volga Federal District, with the opposite trend for the Penza region.
Keywords diseases of the circulatory system, staffing of medical organizations, specialist doctors, therapists, district therapists, tendencies, trend model parameters, forecast
Bibliographic reference:
Z.V. Lopatin, I.M. Son, O.V. Medvedeva, D.V. Vikhrev, D.A. Sychev, LONG-TERM TRENDS AND FORECAST OF STAFFING OF MEDICAL ORGANIZATIONS PROVIDING MEDICAL CARE TO THE POPULATION WITH DISEASES OF THE CIRCULATORY SYSTEM // Scientific journal «Current problems of health care and medical statistics». - 2025. - №3;
URL: http://www.healthproblem.ru/magazines?textEn=1680 (date of access: 08.10.2025).
URL: http://www.healthproblem.ru/magazines?textEn=1680 (date of access: 08.10.2025).
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